Chances of a Full Trump Family Prediction Market Launch This Year Have Dropped Sharply

Trump Family’s 2026 Full Prediction Market Launch Hits a Major Unexpected Snag

The probability that the Trump family will roll out a fully functional, standalone prediction market product before the end of this year has plummeted, marking a stark pivot from earlier high-profile plans laid out by the Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG).

Back in 2025, TMTG first revealed its Truth Predict project, framed as a formal partnership with major cryptocurrency firm Crypto.com. The initial announcement hyped Truth Predict as a groundbreaking new tool that would let Truth Social users place trades on everything from sports outcomes and inflation metrics to election results and more, all via a native embedded prediction market feature integrated directly into the social platform.

“For far too long, small circles of global elites have tightly controlled these markets — with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing access to this information, empowering everyday Americans to leverage collective crowd wisdom, and turning free speech into actionable, usable foresight,” then-TMTG CEO Devin Nunes stated in the official October 2025 press release. At the time, the company laid out a clear token flow for the product: Truth Social users would be able to convert the platform’s existing native “Truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens, then use those tokens to fund their Truth Predict trades.

That full standalone vision is no longer the immediate roadmap. In its latest public regulatory filing, TMTG confirmed the prediction market project “remains in active development,” but its first public launch will not be a native in-app feature, and will instead be limited to a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com — the U.S.-based prediction market platform Crypto.com first launched in February 2026.

What exactly that vague “marketing and promotion collaboration” covers is still unclear. Neither TMTG nor Crypto.com responded to questions requesting full details of the current agreement. “We are encouraged by the progress we’ve made building Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA, and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social’s user base soon,” TMTG spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. For context, “CDNA” refers to Crypto.com Derivatives North America, the U.S.-regulated affiliated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse tied to Crypto.com, a notably clunky, unwieldy brand name.

The prediction market sector is one of the fastest growing and most heavily contested spaces in modern fintech. Donald Trump Jr. already has deep ties to the industry’s top players: he works as a paid advisor to leading prediction market Kalshi, and his personal venture capital firm holds an investment in Polymarket. Sitting President Donald Trump has made very few public comments about prediction markets as a category, though he told reporters back in April that he did not “like it conceptually” and was “not happy with any of that stuff.”

Even so, the Trump administration has adopted a broadly industry-friendly stance toward the space via its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The Biden-era CFTC moved to ban Polymarket outright, and even raided the home of its CEO Shayne Coplan — an investigation the Trump-era CFTC has since formally dropped. The current agency also insists it holds exclusive nationwide jurisdiction over the entire prediction market sector, and has pushed back aggressively against state-level regulatory intervention, filing lawsuits against what CFTC chair Michael Selig describes as “overzealous state regulators.” Selig is currently locked in a bitter high-stakes standoff with state officials over how existing regulation applies to these products: states including Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts have brought firms including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com to court, arguing that prediction markets qualify as unlicensed gambling services that must abide by state gambling rules.

One of OG.com’s most notable proposed features at launch was planned support for margin trading for users, meaning participants would be able to borrow funds to place trade positions rather than putting up 100% of the required capital out of their own pockets. Margin trading is standard across traditional mainstream financial derivatives markets, but a very new addition to the prediction market ecosystem, and carries inherent extra risk by letting traders take large positions using capital they do not actually own. It remains unclear if OG.com will ever roll this feature out: when WIRED reached out to ask if margin trading was live for users, a representative from the “OG team” emailed back to confirm “margin trading is not an offered product.”

The net outcome is that in the near future, Truth Social users may be able to toggle between reading Donald Trump’s all-caps unfiltered posts and accessing high-stakes prediction markets — but depending on the exact structure of the promotional deal, they may never actually be able to place those trades directly inside the Truth Social app itself.

While TMTG continues developing its long-delayed Truth Predict offering, other right-wing media companies are already moving quickly to enter the space. Back in March, Newsmax filed for membership at the National Futures Association for its own upcoming product, branded Newsmax Markets. The two leading prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have already locked in partnership deals with a wide range of media partners, including major mainstream outlets CNN, CNBC, and Fox News.

At first glance, TMTG’s choice to team up with Crypto.com on this project might appear random, but the two firms share deep existing ties, and co-run a separate joint venture focused on a shared cryptocurrency treasury. Crypto.com is also a major donor to multiple Trump-affiliated political committees. Earlier this spring, the crypto firm announced plans to celebrate its 10th company anniversary alongside the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, by co-hosting a full mixed martial arts event held directly on the White House lawn. The event is scheduled to take place this coming June.