Chances of a Full Trump Family Prediction Market Launch This Year Have Dropped Sharply

Chances that the Trump family will roll out a fully functional prediction market product this year have fallen dramatically.

Last year, Trump Media and Technology Group first unveiled Truth Predict, a joint partnership with cryptocurrency firm Crypto.com. The initial announcement billed the tool as an innovative new product that would let Truth Social users place trades on outcomes ranging from sports matches and inflation rates to election results, all via an embedded prediction market service built directly into the platform. “For too long, these markets have been tightly controlled by global elites—with Truth Predict, we’re democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to harness the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable foresight,” then-CEO Devin Nunes stated in an October 2025 press release.

When the project was first announced, the company laid out a clear roadmap: Truth Social users would convert the platform’s existing in-house “Truth gem” token into Cronos cryptocurrency, then use those assets to place trades on Truth Predict. Today, however, Trump Media is framing the initiative very differently. In its most recent public filing, the company noted the prediction market “remains in development,” but its initial rollout will be scaled back to only a “marketing and promotion collaboration” with OG.com, the U.S.-based prediction market platform Crypto.com launched in February 2026.

Exactly what this “marketing and promotion collaboration” entails remains a mystery, as neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to requests for details about the agreement’s terms. “We’re encouraged by the progress we’ve made developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social’s users,” Trump Media spokesperson Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. For context, “CDNA” is the shorthand for Crypto.com’s affiliated U.S.-regulated derivatives exchange and clearinghouse, officially named Crypto.com | Derivatives North America—hardly a name that rolls off the tongue.

Prediction markets are a fast-growing, deeply contested industry. Donald Trump Jr. already holds multiple ties to the sector’s leading firms: he works as a paid advisor to Kalshi and holds an investment stake in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. Former (and current) President Donald Trump has made few public comments on prediction markets, though this April he told reporters he did not “like it conceptually” and that he was “not happy with any of that stuff.”

Even so, the current Trump administration has taken a largely permissive stance toward the industry through its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). During the Biden administration, the CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided the home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan; the Trump-era CFTC has since dropped the entire investigation. The current CFTC also asserts it holds exclusive regulatory jurisdiction over the industry, and has pushed back against state efforts to intervene, filing lawsuits against what CFTC chairman Michael Selig describes as “overzealous state regulators.” Selig is locked in a tense, high-stakes battle with state officials over how existing law should apply to prediction market products: states including Nevada, Wisconsin, and Massachusetts have already brought legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com, arguing the platforms must comply with state gambling regulations.

One defining planned feature of OG.com was its initial intention to allow users to trade on margin, meaning bettors could borrow funds to place trades instead of covering the full cost of their positions upfront. Margin trading is a standard practice in traditional financial derivatives, but it remains relatively new to prediction markets, and it inherently carries extra risk by allowing traders to bet with money they do not own. It is still unclear if OG.com will ever roll out this offering. When WIRED reached out to ask if margin trading is currently live, the “OG team” replied via email that “margin trading is not an offered product.”

The bottom line is this: at some point in the near future, Truth Social users will likely be able to toggle between reading Trump’s all-caps posts and placing bets on events like the World Cup. But depending on how the “marketing and promotion collaboration” is structured, they may never actually execute their trades directly within the social network.

As Trump Media continues to refine the eventual Truth Predict product, other right-wing media outlets are already moving to enter the prediction market space. In March, Newsmax applied for National Futures Association membership for a new venture it calls Newsmax Markets.

The industry’s two leading platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, have already struck partnership deals with a wide range of organizations, including major news outlets like CNN, CNBC, and Fox. At first glance, Trump Media’s decision to partner with Crypto.com may seem unexpected, but the two firms share deep existing ties and run another joint venture in a cryptocurrency treasury. Crypto.com is also a major donor to Trump-aligned political committees. Earlier this spring, the crypto firm announced plans to celebrate its 10th anniversary—and the 250th anniversary of the United States—by cohosting a mixed martial arts event on the White House lawn, scheduled to take place in June.